System Adequacy Beyond Megawatts: Adequacy Is a Bundle of Grid Services, Not Just MW Totals
Under IRP 2025, South Africa’s coal fleet is scheduled for retirement on a 50-year station-life basis, creating a major decommissioning cliff between 2029 and 2035 against a 1.4% annual demand growth projected in the MTSAO 2026–2030 base case. This paper argues that coal decommissioning must not proceed until three distinct prerequisites are met:
These prerequisites are critical because the choice to decommission a coal unit is materially asymmetric to a deferral decision.
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Jaco de la Rouviere is writing in a personal capacity.